For the last decade, the wind industry has exhibited vast underperformance by all, including the top consultants, and a massive effort has been underway to understand where performance losses occurred. These investigations have already revealed that more sophisticated assessment methods are required to improve energy estimates.
Vaisala will be presenting and exhibiting at WINDPOWER 2015 to discuss a better approach to energy assessment. Attendees can join the discussion by visiting Booth 4221 and attending its speaker presentation, “Validation of Pre-construction Energy and Uncertainty Assessments” given by Vaisala Sr. Scientist, Mark Stoelinga.
A few years ago, aware of shortcomings in the classical uncertainty models, Vaisala developed the Energy Risk Framework, an innovative approach designed to calculate uncertainty sensitivities no other model can capture. With the advantages in both modeling technique and risk characterization, Vaisala has gained respect with a number of global banks and investors, often being their preferred opinion. Today, the company is in regular outreach with key banks, and is working toward universal acceptance of our approach.
To demonstrate its accuracy, Vaisala is investing in a significant validation study to prove skill and calibration of its methods. This study will create the beginning of a database that will be continually updated as the company expands on its extensive experience.
There are three basic goals for this study:
1. Prove that Vaisala’s methods can accurately predict P50s in a standard pre-construction estimate.
2. Demonstrate that its Energy Risk Framework calculates uncertainties that actually relate to the prediction error.
3. Establish that Vaisala has a well-documented, robust process that clients and investors can trust to repeatedly achieve trustworthy results at projects going forward.
While Vaisala’s validation effort is a key part of demonstrating its approach and accuracy for energy estimates, it is only the beginning. A core value at Vaisala is continuous improvement, and this study is just the first cycle of a feedback loop that will be maintained indefinitely. As technology changes require the adaptation of new and more sophisticated methodologies, this ongoing feedback process will ensure Vaisala continues to lead with the most scientific and accurate process.
— Source: Vaisala
